THE SOLUTIONS

 

It is going to be a long time before we achieve the state of equilibrium outlined above. First we have to take a colossal number of correct decisions, design millions of new machines and building details, and solve an unlimited number of secondary problems. This task will be unique in the history of mankind.
Centralised decisions

This mission is impossible without international cooperation, without agreements, and above all, without the concentration of power.

Is it not possible for this revolution, this concentration of power, to occur spontaneously from the desires, demands and ceaseless flood of facts and evidence that already exists? Why is it that minor legislative changes and trifling technological improvements never, not even gradually, lead to the correct result? Why is it that the good will of individuals is not enough? Why is it that even multinational corporations never seem to produce the right products for the market? And what do we need the concentration of power – which we all loathe anyway?

This prodigious transformation has to penetrate every aspect of production as old and new structures cannot coexist for long. If they are combined, the old will so disrupt the new that it will be impossible to make full use of them. Furthermore, the changes have to simultaneously affect the production of goods and energy, regional building and infrastructure, because the one influences the other. The transformation I am writing about is infinitely greater in scale than the building of a new suburb, the marketing of a new product or the inauguration of a new factory. It is a far greater project than the reconstruction of Europe after world war two.
It is not worthwhile for a company to develop new products, invest in newfangled machinery and additional plant, and then produce massive series of expensive goods that have no operating environment, and for which the market and demand are doomed in advance. Similarly, no country in Europe is so powerful that it would be worthwhile pursuing a path of wide-scale technological development that differs radically from the past, without either export opportunities or international industrial support. For purely commercial reasons, guaranteed, extensive markets are required. Contrary examples exist, but they are few: the black London taxi cab could differ from vehicles used elsewhere because they had already been manufactured for decades. But it no longer pays to build a factory and design machinery to produce highly specialised products for a limited market. An area the size of Europe is the smallest possible feasible for the wide-scale and profitable introduction of radically improved industry.

The absolute condition for the new industrial revolution is a series of international agreements that realistically guarantee the main lines of development in the decades to come. Once these agreements have been signed, a rough outline should be made of the future society, production and communications. Here power is concentrated. Only then will it be worthwhile for industry to operate according to the laws of the market: product development, market research and investment. In order to guarantee the credibility of these agreements, they should be implemented through national legislation, and any infringements punished by economic sanctions.

The first decisive step is to take the essential political decisions. The European Union should no longer concern itself with issuing directives on trivial matters, but assume responsibility for major issues and become the physician and helmsman of global development. Importantly and inescapably, the first thing Europe must do is to put its own house in order. But this requires the concentration of power, despite the fact that there are many parties involved and it can only be agreed upon through negotiation, despite the fact that agreements are not normally called concentrations of power.
The plan

Once the principles have been decided upon, we can follow usual practices, but within a far broader context. Hitherto we have only designed individual buildings or roads, or at the most remodelling town precincts. Now the physical environment of the whole continent is to be restructured. This requires plans, ideas, enthusiasm. It will not succeed unless we throw off the straightjacket of the existing environment and system of production.

Here I offer a few examples of the plans required. Each one calls for a wide-ranging team of experts; we need philosophers, futurologists, technologists, economists, corporate managers, cost accountants and artists. Such people can be found, and none of the tasks are impossible.

1) Present the measures needed to reduce energy consumption in Europe. Analyse the relationship between the investments required and the savings gained in a) communications, b) heating costs, and c) industry. Implementation within 10 years.

2) Draw up a plan to end carbon dioxide emissions. Present new regional reserves in energy production, design the factories producing energy generating equipment, and draw up an energy balance sheet for the whole process. Implementation within 30 years.
3) Plan a waste-free packaging industry. Present calculations of the cost of new plant and the demands for restrictions on packages. Make a proposal for what to do with the old factories. Implementation within 10 years.

4) Design a transcontinental industrialised recycling system for machines and equipment. Assume that a functioning system of recycling metals, plastics and minerals already exists. Implementation within 20 years.

5) Make an analytical proposal for doubling the present life span of buildings. Compare recyclable and sustainable alternatives. Implementation in new building within 5 years.

6) Design a transcontinental system making metals recyclable. Assume that the transportation of materials is easier than nowadays. Assume the existence of a transcontinental data bank of the quantities and types of scrap metal. Implementation within 10 years.

7) Design a nature conservation area running through Europe. Draw up a specification for the projected distribution of all large mammals in protected conditions. Calculate the costs. Implementation within 30 years.

8) Draw up a plan for the use of Europe’s forests with the objectives of self-sufficiency in wood, minimising transportation, and optimising the commercial and aesthetic values of forests. Implementation within 10 years.

9) Plan the use and recycling of paper in Europe to optimise the balance of energy, materials, land use, transportation and relationship to electronic information communications. Implementation within 10 years.

10) Plan the water supply, waste disposal and traffic of eco-cities to minimise noise, air pollution and other environmental hazards. Implementation within 30 years.

11) Plan a transcontinental, high-speed train network to replace internal air traffic. Similarly analyse requirements for feeder traffic within such a rail network. Implementation within 20 years.

12) Develop a local traffic system that does not pollute the air, use fossil fuels, is safe and does not consume people’s time in driving. Implementation within 20 years.
Let us now assume that the main plans, and the timetables, for the continent have been outlined. What is important here is the overall concept. Energy consumption, for example, is significantly influenced by the new system of producing goods, organising traffic and building residential areas. Thus it is essential that all plans are closely dovetailed and their basic objectives checked to remove any possible contradictions at a very early stage. This is not a question of an in-depth analysis of the details, but of achieving a complete and logical totality. You should not be satisfied with only a 20 % energy saving if this automatically results from overhauling transportation and the building stock.
The international community, preferably the EU Commission, should order such general plans from the experts as soon as possible. They could be produced within a year at almost no cost at all. Design competitions will produce an endless stream of new ideas on the basis of the decisions taken.

The aim here is not for a central plan complete in all its details. It is enough once the main lines and goals have been laid down in international agreements. Once these have been made, the details can and will be continuously and flexibly altered as knowledge increases and technology advances. Decisions concerning details should be widely delegated so as to breathe the spirit of competition into technology as well as business. The market should not be suppressed, but encouraged.

The guiding principle in planning is that you progress from the general to the specific; the basic principles are decided upon first. Up to now the most ambitious plans have concerned the construction of suburbs or towns. Even the idea of state planning is considered something rather abstract and remote from everyday reality. Even more alien is the idea of planning a whole continent for several decades ahead. Nevertheless, it is essential because otherwise the change in direction would not be radical enough. I shall return to this question under the chapter on the alternatives.
Legislation

Once the long-range goals have been agreed upon and the different plans dovetailed, the next step is legislation. Laws, therefore, have to be introduced for the following sectors.

A) The population must be reduced. The most densely populated countries of Europe are overflowing at the seams. The net reproduction rates, which forecast the number of people in the decades to come, indicate a clear and thankful decrease in population. Thus it has not been necessary in Europe to resort to the kind of drastic measures carried out in China for example. It is enough if a falling population is generally accepted as the correct goal. Legislation will no longer support large families economically or morally. One of the worst examples of the contrary is the Finnish tradition, dating from the years of austerity, of the president awarding honours on Mother’s Day to the mothers of large families.
B) The generation and consumption of energy must be placed on a healthy footing in order to save natural resources and reduce emissions. Non-polluting energy does not burden the environment. The consumption of harmful energy is reduced by a phased increase in energy and environmental taxes. Society collects a justifiable charge on nonrenewable natural resources and environmental hazards. From the outset the tax should be higher than the harm done: high enough so that new desirable energy technologies can overcome their teething problems. This distorts competition, but the tax burden on harmful energy supports the generation of desirable forms of energy. The new technology is supported as it competes with existing but harmful technology. The annually increasing support goes for investment and product development in new technology. In this way the price of desirable energy falls and its sale increases. As the length of the series increases, aided by intelligent automatisation, the price of the modern technologies can be further reduced, likewise the price of energy to the consumer. The generation of energy becomes ever more profitable once the markets for the new technologies are guaranteed. It will then be possible to reduce the taxes on discouraged forms of energy to the level of the harm done. There will, however, be no turning the clock back to obsolescent technologies.

C) The production of goods must be based on recycling. This can be steered by phased increases in municipal landfill charges, severe taxes on emissions, punishing those dumping waste in the environment, and imposing a gradually increasing tax on untouched natural resources. The taxes should depend on the scarcity of natural resources and the harmfulness of the emissions. In addition to economic constraints, direct limitations should be imposed. Product liability laws should be passed which compel manufacturers to accept the return of used products against a deposit which has been included in the selling price. A timetable is agreed upon internationally for when industry has to totally converted to recycling. After then there will be no waste in municipal landfills and all emissions are cleaned up. The burdening of the environment will remain constant and harmless, and the use of untouched natural resources reduced to a fraction of its present level. New demands will be placed on the design of products. The durability of products and their parts, plus a lifespan analysis, must be presented with the design when applying for a manufacturing permit. This is only granted in cases where the environmental hazard resulting from production or use can be tolerated.

D) Land use will be controlled. A nature conservation area stretching the length of Europe will be planned for the large mammals. Over the following decades land will be fenced off for this purpose through compulsory purchase and a ban on new building. Multi-level connections will be built at the junctions of roads with the conservation area. Land used for the production of food will be planned to minimise produce transportation and make regions self-sufficient in essentials. Regulations will be introduced to ensure a reasonable level of organic cultivation. These will also be nature protection areas in the sense that the use of poisons will be strictly controlled to protect both man and beast. Like cropland, forests will also be located to minimise timber transports and increase the conservation value of commercial forests. Standards for residential areas will be gradually tightened up, and regulations introduced covering energy, waste and water management and transport. Building standards applying to the whole continent will be introduced with charges for the environmental burdens of energy, emissions, water consumption and transport resulting from building. These will steadily increase in price.

E) Communications will be overhauled. Economic support will be given to developing data communications. As these develop so the environmental hazards caused by aging physical communications will diminish. A joint schedule will be agreed upon for the development of supranational technologies, such as digital exchanges and fibre optic cables, for the whole of Europe. Their purpose is to diversify the storage and transfer of information. A high-speed train network based on existing tracks will be built with public funds. All main lines will be four track. Agreement will be reached on train standards and feeder lines. A complete infrastructure will be built for all lines, which can be used by pollution-free, electric-powered vehicles. A standardised transeuropean pipeline network will be built, through which goods can be conveyed without endangering or interfering with passenger traffic. The schedule agreed to will ensure that the new system of communications will become operative throughout the continent by a specific date.
Once the required social measures have been taken and the parametres established, market forces are allowed to manage the rest. First society sets clear objectives, then it leaves the field open. What is important is that industry, business life and the markets, firmly believe that the established goals are sacrosanct. Only then can a major programme of innovations to develop new products, production machinery and processes be initiated. And only then will the competitiveness and striking power of industry be directed towards the correct goals.

These gigantic measures are possible because there is not shortage of labour. On the contrary, the spectre of unemployment will be abolished over the following decades as Europe adjusts to the demands of the present and the future.