TABLE 1: AGGLOMERATIONS OF ACTUAL AREAS

The plan

The book also presents a plan for land use based on numerous assumptions relating to food consumption, harvests, amount of solar radiation, etc. The bases for these assumptions are all approximations and concern quantities that vary from country to country, and from year to year. A precise and accurate land use plan would require the labour of dozens of people for years on end. My purpose has only been to list the factors that must be taken into consideration when planning land use. Furthermore, my figures are not estimates of the future, but indications of the direction in which we should strive.

There are two plans. The results are given as Alternatives 1 and 2. The first is based on the following assumptions and calculations.

Alternative 1

1) Population

The assumption contained in the ideal situation is that in no country will the population be higher than at present (1993 population statistics). It is thought that the population density in Great Britain and Germany will decline to 200 inhabitants per square kilometre, and the population of Holland and Belgium will decline by 20 per cent.

2) Food production

Under Finnish conditions, 0.267 hectares are required to product a daily intake of 1057 kilocalories of animal-based foods if the cereal yield is 3355 kilos per hectare. This gives the following ratio: if the harvest of 3500 kilos per hectare, so 0.242 hectares of land are required to produce 1000 kilocalories of animal-based food per day. This ratio has been used in all calculations.

Under Finnish conditions, 0.048 hectares are required to product a daily intake of 1484 kilocalories of plant-based foods if the cereal yield is 3355 kilos per hectare. This gives the following ratio: if the harvest of 3500 kilos per hectare, so 0.031 hectares of land are required to produce 1000 kilocalories of plant-based food per day. This ratio has also been used in all calculations.

The average animal and plant-based calories, cereal harvests and population of each country determines the amount of land required. The above mentioned ratios can be more clearly specified.

In the ideal situation countries have been classified in the following way on the basis of variations in their diets:

1) High animal-food consumption countries 1400 kilocalories per person per day

2) Average animal-food consumption countries 1200 kilocalories per person per day

3) Low animal-food consumption countries 1000 kilocalories per person per day

1) High plant-food consumption countries 2200 kilocalories per person per day

2) Average plant-food consumption countries 1900 kilocalories per person per day

3) Low plant-food consumption countries 1600 kilocalories per person per day

Table 2 shows the assumptions made for each country in respect to food from animal and plant sources.

(Reference source: Food Consumption Statistics 1976-1985. OECD 1985)

Cereal harvests in countries vary regionally and annually. This is why the production of cereals in different countries has been idealised on the basis of present levels and anticipated developments:

1) Excess cereal production countries 7000 kilos per hectare per annum

2) High cereal production countries 5500 kilos per hectare per annum

3) Average cereal production countries 4000 kilos per hectare per annum

4) Low cereal production countries 2500 kilos per hectare per annum

(Reference source: FAO Yearbook of Production, 1991 and 1993)

3) Paper and sawn timber production

Europeans use 184.4 million cubic metres of various types of sawn timber each year, which means felling 252.6 million cubic metres of wood, ie, 0.51 cubic metres per person per annum. The utility function is 75 %. The former figure has been rounded off to 0.50 cubic metres per person per annum.

When paper is made mechanically, 0.4 tonnes of fibre are obtained from 1 cubic metre of timber, and from this 0.5 tonnes of paper or 0.7 tonnes of art paper. If pulp is produced chemically, 0.2 tonnes of cellulose are obtained from 1 cubic metre of timber, and from this 0.25 tonnes of paper or 0.35 tonnes of art paper. These figures have been obtained from the Finnish forest industry. The European average is 0.26 tonnes of cellulose from 1 cubic metre of timber. On the basis of the above the ideal ratio of 0.33 tonnes of paper per cubic metre of timber is obtained.

Assumptions for the ideal paper consumption in each country:

1) High paper consumption countries 133 kilos per person per annum

2) Average paper consumption countries 100 kilos per person per annum

3) Low paper consumption countries 67 kilos per person per annum

Let us assume that 50 per cent of paper is recycled in all countries.

The consumption of timber is then as follows:

1) High paper consumption countries 0.20 cubic metres per person per annum

2) Average paper consumption countries 0.15 cubic metres per person per annum

3) Low paper consumption countries 0.10 cubic metres per person per annum

In addition all countries use 0.50 cubic metres per person per annum of sawn timber.

Let us assume that the ideal net growth of forests is as follows:

1) High net growth countries 6.5 cubic metres per hectare per annum

2) Average net groth countries 4.0 cubic metres per hectare per annum

3) Low net growth countries 1.5 cubic metres per hectare per annum

The correspondence of the above figures to present ones is that in nearly all countries, where the net annual growth is assumed to be 6.5 cubic metres per hectare, it has in fact been higher in recent years. In those countries, where the net annual growth is assumed to be 4.0 or 1.5 cubic metres per hectare, it has been at these levels. A further assumption is that only two-thirds of net growth is used in all countries, with the corollary that the remaining third is left in the forests.

In respect to paper consumption, the correspondence of the above figures to present ones is that in all countries where consumption is estimated at 133 kilos per person per annum, it is at present over 200 kilos per person per annum. In those countries where it is estimated at 67 kilos per person per annum, it is actually under this figure. For other countries it has been rounded off to 100 kilos per person per annum. There is thus an all-round reduction in the consumption of paper. This is based on the assumption that electronic communications will reduce and ultimately diminish the need for paper.

Table 2 shows the assumptions made in the calculations in respect to each country.

TABLE 2: ASSUMPTIONS RELATING TO FOOD, PAPER AND SAWN TIMBER PRODUCTION, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY GENERATION AND BUILT AREA

CZE=FORMER CZECHOSLOVAKIA

BLT=BALTIC STATES

YOG=FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

4) Energy generation

The starting point in calculating the ideal values is the per capita quantity of solid and liquid fuels in different countries, as well as the total consumption. In those countries where total consumption is under 100 gigajoules per person per annum, the ideal is just this figure. The consumption of petroleum and coal has also been taken into consideration. These countries are Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Portugal, Romania and the former Yugoslavia. Countries where the overall consumption is more than 200 gigajoules per person per annum, the ideal value has been reduced to this figure. These countries are Norway, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and Holland. The reduction has been taken from petroleum and coal. With the remaining countries, consumption per person remains at its present level. After the change, the consumption of oil and coal is replaced by new forms of energy.

After this countries have been divided as follows according to the amount of solar radiation:

Low radiation countries 50 kWh per square metre per annum of electricity

Average radiation countries 50 kWh per square metre per annum of electricity

High radiation countries 50 kWh per square metre per annum of electricity

Wind power has been assumed to produce 7.5 kWh per square metre per annum of electricity.

Thermal pipes are assumed to produce 15 kWh per square metre per annum of heat but lose 5 kWh per square metre per annum of electricity.

The values used have been converted into terajoules per square kilometre per annum.

Low radiation countries 189 TJ/km²/a of electricity, 54 TJ/km²/a of heat

Average radiation countries 225 TJ/km²/a of electricity, 54 TJ/km²/a of heat

High radiation countries 279 TJ/km²/a of electricity, 54 TJ/km²/a of heat

It is assumed that the output of energy forests in the different radiation areas is: 7.5 – 6.0 – 5.0 tons of energy per hectare per annum.

Converted into terajoules per square kilometre per annum, the output of energy forests is as follows:

Low radiation countries 30.5 TJ/km²/a of heat or 10.7 TJ/km²/a of electricity

Average radiation countries 24.4 TJ/km²/a of heat or 8.5 TJ/km²/a of electricity

High radiation countries 20.3 TJ/km²/a of heat or 7.1 TJ/km²/a of electricity

Countries have been divided into high, average and low radiation countries in accordance with Table 2.

5) Nature conservation areas

The nature conservation area as a percentage of the total area has been obtained by allocating 10 per cent for this purpose in all countries except the sparsely populated Nordic countries where it is 20 per cent.

6) Built area

Defining the built area is rather arbitrary. For a through-going analysis I would suggest reading the three-volume Atlas of Agglomerations in the European Union. This specifies 330 dwelling areas in the EU with at least 100 000 inhabitants. A special built-up area is defined as one where the buildings are a maximum of 200 metres from each other. These statistics provide a picture of the density of settlement in different countries and regions. Thus the most dense town areas are those with about 20 000 inhabitants per square kilometre (50 square metres per person). However, in wider areas, as for example Greater Munich, which has an area of 310 square kilometres, 1.2 people are living. This density offers an average area of 260 square metres per person. Generally speaking, the density of population in large areas varies from 600 to 1 500 inhabitants per square kilometre. A more accurate figure is difficult to find as a large number of people live quite densely, but dispersed areas drop the average considerably.

On the basis of the above, it is assumed that in the Nordic countries, with the exception of Denmark, the built area is 1 500 metres per person. The average assumed area is 1 000 metres per person, and 700 metres per person in the most densely populated countries. The assumptions for each country are contained in Table 2. This area includes all building. The same figures have been used in calculating the present and planned areas.

TABLE 3: AGGLOMERATIONS OF PLANNED AREAS

Alternative 1

Conclusion

When the areas calculated in the above way are agglomerated, there is not enough land in certain countries. My aim, however, is for self-sufficiency for the continent and its various regions. This is not possible unless population and consumption in the densely settled areas is considerably reduced. For humane and political reasons, this cannot happen overnight. It is more important to aim at self-sufficiency in food and energy production. This has been achieved with the exception of Holland and Belgium which will be partly fed by Denmark. Self-sufficiency in forests cannot be achieved. Large areas of the Nordic and certain other countries will be reserved to satisfy the needs of the highly populated countries of central Europe. This is the way the figures for land use have been reached in Table 3 which follows the division of countries in the plan.

7) “Other land”

“Other land” is what remains after the above mentioned idealistic agglomerations. It should be at least as large as the difference between the real overall area and the land area. When the sum of the idealistic surface areas is greater than the relevant country’s land area, then the forest area is subtracted. The effect of forest output has been taken into consideration in surface area transfers. The largest increases in forest areas are in the Nordic countries.

TABLE 4: AGGLOMERATIONS OF PLANNED AREAS

Alternative 2

CZE=FORMER CZECHOSLOVAKIA

BLT=BALTIC STATES

YOG=FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

The plan, Alternative 2

In the second alternative plan it has been thought that the relation of pasture to cropland is the same as at present, and that the yield of the former is half that of the latter. The total area devoted to agriculture would then rise to 1 672 000 square kilometres. If this is compared to the existing total of pasture and cropland of 2 200 000 square kilometres, the difference is still significant. This is partly explained by the figure 0.95 x 0.90 / 1.05 = 0.81 which comes from the effect of a smaller population, healthier diets and increased yields. If the present area is multiplied by this multiplier, a figure of 1 782 000 square kilometres is obtained. The difference between this and the plan is now only 6 per cent. The difference points to other exceptional assumptions, such as the difference between imports and exports and the real value of pasture output.

In regard to paper and wood consumption, it is thought to increase the figures in Alternative I by 50 per cent. Paper consumption would then vary from 100 to 200 kilos per person per annum and sawn timber 0.75 cubic metres per capita per annum. These figures are closer to today’s realities. On the basis of the assumptions made the area under forest would rise to 1 712 000 square kilometres, which is 4 per cent higher than now.

In this alternative, there is an all-round decline in “other land”, except in the Nordic countries. Alternative 2 is illustrated in Table 4 and Figure 10.

Sources:

[1] Atlas of Agglomorations in the European Union. N.U.R.E.C. (Network on Urban Research in the European Union), Duisburg 1994. (rakennettu maa)

[2] FAO Production Yearbook 1993 ja 1991 (vдestц, maankдyttц)

[3] IUCN: United Nations List of National Parks and Protected Areas (luonnonsuojelualueet)

[4] Energy Statistics Yearbook 1992. (energian kulutus)

[5] Food Consumption Statistics 1976-1985, OECD, 1985. (viljan kulutus)

[6] 1997 FAO Production Yearbook , 1998. (vдestц, maankдyttц)

[7] Energy Statistics Yearbook 1995, United Nations, New York, 1997. (energian kulutus)

Calculations for Tables 1-4

TABLE 5. ALTERNATIVE 1: EUROPE’S PRESENT AND IDEAL POPULATION. BUILT AREA BASED ON IDEAL POPULATION

CZE=FORMER CZECHOSLOVAKIA

BLT=BALTIC STATES

YOG=FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

TABLE 6. ALTERNATIVE 1: EUROPE’S IDEAL POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

CZE=FORMER CZECHOSLOVAKIA

BLT=BALTIC STATES

YOG=FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

TABLE 7. ALTERNATIVE 1: EUROPE’S IDEAL POPULATION AND FOREST INDUSTRY